[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 16 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 17 10:29:05 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the past day.
A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at around 08UT
however STEREO images show that this is a backside event and
will not be geoeffective. The solar wind speed is at ambient
levels. The IMF Bz component has been mainly northward at around
5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the
next three days as all visible sunspot regions are stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21233112
Darwin 7 21223212
Townsville 8 22233122
Learmonth 8 22233211
Norfolk Island 4 21222002
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 10133001
Hobart 5 11233001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 20123000
Casey 13 24443101
Mawson 9 32333110
Davis 12 33334111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25 2644 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 5 Quiet
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Unsettled with
an isolated Active period across the Australian region. Conditions
are expected to be Quiet for the 17th. Sometime on the 18th and
then also the 19th, Unsettled conditions with possible Active
periods are expected due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Poor Poor Fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions have been poor over the last
day with significant MUF depressions seen across all latitudes.
These conditions have improved towards the end of the day however
conditions may remain mildly depressed at times on the 17th of
February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 60 About 15% below predicted monthly values
18 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 60 About 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been depressed by 30% or more across the Australian
region over the last day. East coast stations in southern Australia
also experience blanketing E for much of the daylight hours.
Conditions have improved towards the end of the UT day however
depressions may continue to be experienced on the 17th, albeit
at a less severe level of around 15%. MUFs should return to around
predicted monthly values on the 18th. An expected coronal hole
high speed wind stream may drive geomagnetic activity on the
18th and 19th leading to more depressed MUFs on the 19th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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