[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 5 10:29:09 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Two small CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery but neither appears
Earth directed according to STEREO imagery. The solar wind speed
maintained around 450 km/s during the day. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 10 22224322
Norfolk_Island 6 12222222
Camden 8 22223222
Canberra 8 22223222
Hobart 8 22223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 13 12244411
Casey 20 35434322
Mawson 25 44334345
Davis 20 34444422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2111 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 7 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Austrlian region were mainly
Quiet with an isolated Unsettled period in the middle part of
the UT day. Antartic regions were Unsettled to Active over the
day, with some minor storm periods. Some Unsettled conditions
may persist for another day before settling to Quiet levels on
days 2 and 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by around 15% during the day across
much of the Region. Nightime conditions improved and at dawn
MUFs have returned to around predicted monthly values. These
conditions are expectd to persist for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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