[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 6 10:31:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The X-ray flares were two B-class from the largest region AR1410
which has now stopped growing and is stable. It's partner region
AR1413 is declining in size, and the only other active region
on the disc AR1414 is small and not growing. The solar wind speed
remained at mildly elevated levels ~450 km/s but was very steady
at this level over the UT day. In contrast the IMF Bz north-south
component fluctuated rapidly with timescales less than an hour
between relatively low values of +/- 4nT but these fluctuations
were likely to cause some geomagnetic disturbance. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days as the few
currently visible sunspot regions are small, stable and magnetically
simple (Beta). The STEREO-B spacecraft shows no significant active
regions likely to rotate onto the Earth facing disc in the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 10 22224322
Norfolk Island 6 12222222
Camden 8 22223222
Canberra 8 22223222
Hobart 8 22223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 12244412
Casey 21 35434323
Mawson 25 44334345
Davis 20 34444422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2111 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were mainly
Quiet with some isolated Unsettled periods, probably due the
rapid, although low amplitude, fluctuations in IMF Bz north-south
component throughout the day together with a moderately elevated
solar wind speed. Antarctic regions, particularly around the
auroral oval and sub-Antarctic (inner magnetosphere Plasmapause)
saw some Active and Minor storms levels of activity. The polar
cap was less affected suggesting strong field aligned current
activity driven by the rapidly fluctuating IMF Bz. Conditions
are expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days, in the absence
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards, as no CMEs or high speed solar
wind streams are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions generally stable at mid and Equatorial
latitudes. Polar latitudes moderately disturbed at auroral and
sub-auroral regions, and a little less inside the polar cap,
by geomagnetic activity from rapidly fluctuating IMF Bz north-south
component augmented by moderately elevated solar wind speed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 70 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed ~15% at Mid-latitudes during the
daytime, probably from the decreased EUV and X-ray ionising flux
from the low number of sunspots which are all fairly small and
low activity. However in an opposite trend, Equatorial latitudes
had enhanced MUFs near local noon, probably due to transport
of ionisation by thermospheric neutral winds into the region.
Nighttime values were close to monthly medians and Mid-latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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