[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 03 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 4 10:31:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
A southward directed CME was seen in LASCO imagery just after
7UT however STEREO imagery indicates this is a backside event.
The solar wind speed remained at mildly elevated levels around
400-440 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5nT.
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next 3 days
as the few currently visible sunspot regions are small, stable
and magnetically simple.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22123112
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 6 22122212
Norfolk_Island 5 22122112
Camden 6 12223111
Canberra 5 12123101
Hobart 6 22223111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 10 12135200
Casey 24 45543322
Mawson 17 53333322
Davis 17 44433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Austrlian region were mainly
Quiet with some isolated Unsettled periods. Antartic regions
saw some isolated minor storms levels of actitiy, settling towards
the end of the UT day. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 50 about 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. Overnight
geomagnetic activity in polar regions appears to have depressed
the MUFs in the Australian region by around 20%. This is likely
to persist for the next day before returning to predicted monthly
values on days 2 and 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list