[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 12 issued 2355 UT on 29 Dec 2012
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 30 10:55:14 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Expect Very
Low solar activity 30-Dec December, with the chance of an isolated
C-class flare. The solar wind remains slow (~300km/s) and IMF
relatively stable, conditions expected to persist for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12221112
Cocos_Island 2 02111001
Darwin 2 12110011
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 6 22222112
Norfolk_Island 3 12110012
Culgoora 3 12121011
Gnangara 6 22221212
Camden 4 12221111
Canberra 2 02110001
Hobart 5 12221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 1 12000000
Casey 14 23532222
Mawson 14 33321215
Davis 12 23423223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 29 December and are
expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels may
be observed at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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