[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 12 issued 2355 UT on 29 Dec 2012

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 30 10:55:14 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Expect Very 
Low solar activity 30-Dec December, with the chance of an isolated 
C-class flare. The solar wind remains slow (~300km/s) and IMF 
relatively stable, conditions expected to persist for the next 
three days. 





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221112
      Cocos_Island         2   02111001
      Darwin               2   12110011
      Townsville           5   12221112
      Learmonth            6   22222112
      Norfolk_Island       3   12110012
      Culgoora             3   12121011
      Gnangara             6   22221212
      Camden               4   12221111
      Canberra             2   02110001
      Hobart               5   12221112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
      Macquarie_Island     1   12000000
      Casey               14   23532222
      Mawson              14   33321215
      Davis               12   23423223
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec     5    Quiet 
31 Dec     5    Quiet 
01 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 29 December and are 
expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels may 
be observed at times over the next few days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Dec   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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