[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 12 issued 2226 UT on 30 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 31 09:26:50 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Expect 
Very Low solar activity 31-Dec December, with the chance of an 
isolated C-class flare. The solar wind increased steadily over 
the UT day to be near 480km/s at time of reporting, with moderate 
(+/-5nT) fluctuations in IMF Bz. The variations were due to a 
weak coronal hole wind stream, which is expected to decline over 
the next 24-48 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11222221
      Cocos Island         5   11222220
      Darwin               8   13322222
      Townsville           6   12222221
      Learmonth            7   21222321
      Norfolk Island       5   21122220
      Culgoora             6   21222221
      Gnangara             6   21222221
      Camden               6   21222221
      Canberra             3   00212210
      Hobart               5   11222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   11121110
      Casey               20   33544322
      Mawson              13   32233333
      Davis               14   32343332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0110 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan     5    Quiet
02 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed for 30 December 
and are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels 
may be observed at times over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Dec   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    42000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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