[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 12 issued 2335 UT on 28 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 29 10:35:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 
29 December. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests 
that a CME observed late on the 27th December in association 
with a disappearing solar filament is primarily directed northward 
up out of the ecliptic plane and is not expected to be significantly 
geoeffective. Solar wind conditions have been predominantly low/weak 
and are expected to continue at these levels for the next few 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Cocos Island         1   01110011
      Darwin               3   11121012
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            6   22-22122
      Norfolk Island       2   01110112
      Culgoora             3   11111012
      Gnangara             5   12122122
      Camden               4   11111122
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               3   11111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                9   33321122
      Mawson               7   22111133
      Davis                9   23232222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     5    Quiet
30 Dec     5    Quiet
31 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 28 December and are 
expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels may 
be observed at times over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    21500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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