[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 12 issued 2329 UT on 27 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 28 10:29:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar
region 1635 during 27 December. Solar activity is expected to
be predominantly Low for 28 December. Solar wind conditions have
been predominantly low/weak and are expected to continue at these
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 20000011
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 4 22111111
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Culgoora 1 11000010
Gnangara 3 21111011
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 6 33210012
Mawson 7 33101023
Davis 6 --222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 6 Quiet
30 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 27 December and are
expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may be observed
at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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