[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 12 issued 2329 UT on 27 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 28 10:29:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar 
region 1635 during 27 December. Solar activity is expected to 
be predominantly Low for 28 December. Solar wind conditions have 
been predominantly low/weak and are expected to continue at these 
levels for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               1   20000011
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Norfolk Island       1   10000012
      Culgoora             1   11000010
      Gnangara             3   21111011
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                6   33210012
      Mawson               7   33101023
      Davis                6   --222122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec     6    Quiet
30 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed for 27 December and are 
expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may be observed 
at times over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the 
UT day and are expected to be mostly normal for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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