[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 12 issued 2350 UT on 26 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 27 10:50:29 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar 
region 1635 during 26 December. Mostly Low level activity is 
expected for 27 December. Solar wind conditions have been predominantly 
low/weak and are expected to continue at these levels for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222012
      Cocos Island         2   11-11001
      Darwin               3   21111002
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            6   22222112
      Norfolk Island       3   11111012
      Culgoora             3   11122011
      Gnangara             5   21222112
      Camden               4   21222011
      Canberra             1   00111001
      Hobart               4   11222101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   10101001
      Casey               15   33532113
      Mawson               8   23321113
      Davis               11   33423211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     6    Quiet
28 Dec     6    Quiet
29 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed for 26 December 
and are expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may 
be observed at times over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    33800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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