[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 12 issued 2349 UT on 25 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 26 10:49:38 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar 
region 1635 during 25 December. Mostly Low level solar activity 
is expected for the next few days. Solar wind conditions are 
relatively low/weak and are expected to remain around these levels 
for the next few days. Very weak coronal hole effects may be 
observed late on 26 to 27 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Cocos Island         2   11110111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            5   22111212
      Norfolk Island       3   11110112
      Culgoora             2   21100111
      Gnangara             5   31111212
      Camden               4   21111112
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               3   111111-2    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   01010101
      Casey               17   45422123
      Mawson              13   32212135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0210     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed for 25 December 
and are expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may 
be observed at times as the result of anticipated weak coronal 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    39400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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