[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 12 issued 2347 UT on 24 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 25 10:47:35 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately 
quiet during Dec 24. The only X-ray event of significance was 
an impulsive C1.7 flare from region 1635((N11W05)at 1614UT. This 
region is stable while region 1633(S7W39) has increased in area 
and magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Low for the next few days, although there is a slight chance 
that AR1633 and AR1635 will produce isolated M-class flares. 
LASCO and STEREO images indicate a CME early in the UT day that 
is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind has been steady 
near ~330km/s for the last 24h. The Bz component of the IMF was 
mostly northward with a short reversal to the southward orientation 
between 13-16UT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed 
over the next 24 hours. Coronal hole effects are likely to impact 
late on 26 Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Cocos Island         2   11110200
      Darwin               3   1-110211
      Townsville           6   12111322
      Learmonth            6   22121312
      Norfolk Island       2   11000212
      Culgoora             3   11111201
      Gnangara             5   21111311
      Camden               5   11111312
      Canberra             1   00000201
      Hobart               3   11011211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000200
      Casey               10   33241221
      Mawson               8   21122422

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     3    Quiet
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly at Quiet levels 
during the last 24 hours. An isolated Unsettled period observed 
at some stations at ~15UT probably in response to a mild prolonged 
southward Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field peaking 
near -6nT at ~15UT. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
day 1 (25 Dec). Increased geomagnetic activity is expected from 
late on day 2(26 Dec) due to an anticipated mild coronal hole 
wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. The 
ionosphere remains stronger than average. Expect this trend to 
continue for the next 24 hours. Mild depressions may occur at 
times days 2 and 3 (26-27 Dec) in response to possible elevated 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    21400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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