[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 12 issued 2348 UT on 23 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 24 10:48:51 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Only few low level C flares observed over the UT day
Dec 23. Region 1635(N10E22)retains its magnetic complexity but
appears to be declining. Other regions appear to be stable or
declining. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Low for
the next few days. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed.
The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the
next two days(24-25 Dec). A coronal hole wind stream may increase
the solar wind speed day 3 (26 Dec).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 01101101
Darwin 2 01011111
Townsville 5 12212221
Learmonth 6 22122212
Norfolk Island 2 11001112
Culgoora 2 10011111
Gnangara 4 21111212
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 1 00001101
Hobart 3 11112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 8 23311222
Mawson 5 11112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 3 Quiet
25 Dec 3 Quiet
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal. The regional geomagnetic
field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions next two days (24-25 Dec). Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
are possible 26 Dec due to an anticipated mild coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 23 Dec and are
expected to be mostly normal for the next 48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. The
ionosphere is stronger than average. Expect this trend to continue
for the next 2 days, 24-25 Dec. Mild depressions may occur at
times during 26 Dec in response to possible elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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