[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 12 issued 2340 UT on 23 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 24 10:40:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Only few low level C flares observed over the UT day 
Dec 23. Region 1635(N10E22)retains its magnetic complexity but 
appears to be declining. Other regions appear to be stable or 
declining. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Low for 
the next few days. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed. 
The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the 
next two days(24-25 Dec). A coronal hole wind stream may increase 
the solar wind speed day 3 (26 Dec).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   01101100
      Darwin               2   01011111
      Townsville           5   12212221
      Learmonth            6   22122212
      Norfolk Island       2   11001112
      Culgoora             2   10011111
      Gnangara             4   21111212
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             1   00001101
      Hobart               3   11112111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                8   23311222
      Mawson               5   11112222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec     3    Quiet
25 Dec     3    Quiet
26 Dec     8    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal. The regional geomagnetic 
field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic 
conditions next two days (24-25 Dec). Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
are possible 26 Dec due to an anticipated mild coronal hole wind 
stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 23 Dec and are 
expected to be mostly normal for the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Dec   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. The 
ionosphere is stronger than average. Expect this trend to continue 
for the next 2 days, 24-25 Dec. Mild depressions may occur at 
times during 26 Dec in response to possible elevated geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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