[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 12 issued 2338 UT on 22 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 23 10:38:15 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/66             120/66             120/66

COMMENT: Regions 1635((N09E35)) and 1633(S07W13)produced multiple(low 
level)C flares over the UT day Dec 22. Region 1635 remains the 
most complex region on the visible disc (beta-gamma mag class). 
This region may produce isolated M-class flares over the forecast 
period. Background X-ray flux steadily increased over the day. 
LASCO and STEREO images indicate recent CME activity that is 
not earth directed and is not expected to be geo-effective. ACE 
data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed. The Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating in +/-2nT range, 
over the period, with no extended southward periods. The solar 
wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the next three 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Cocos Island         0   0011000-
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Townsville           4   12221110
      Learmonth            4   2212111-
      Norfolk Island       2   11100112
      Culgoora             1   11010001
      Gnangara             3   1111111-
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               3   12110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   01010000
      Casey               11   35311110
      Mawson               4   22111102

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       002
           Planetary            003                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       003
           Planetary            003   1111 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     5    Quiet
24 Dec     5    Quiet
25 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. No CMEs are currently in transit towards the 
Earth. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet over the next 
the three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 22 Dec and are 
expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
       Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with 
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some degradations observed 
at times due to spread F and sporadic E. Expect mostly normal 
ionospheric conditions across the region next three days. Slight 
chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    64900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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