[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 12 issued 2339 UT on 21 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 22 10:39:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day
Dec 21. Most B-class flares originated from region 1635(N09E44).
This region has increased in area and magnetic complexity and
is classified Eki. The other numbered regions on the disk remain
largely stable. Expect mostly C-class flares with a slight chance
of M-class flares over the next few days. No significant CME
activity was observed over the period. Solar wind speed declined
slowly from 500 to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component showed moderate
fluctuations about neutral. The solar wind is expected to continue
decreasing over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 4 21210112
Townsville 6 22221212
Learmonth 5 22121212
Norfolk Island 2 21110011
Culgoora 3 12120111
Gnangara 5 22121211
Camden 4 22121111
Canberra 2 12010001
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11120000
Casey 17 45432221
Mawson 11 33222224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 0221 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 5 Quiet
23 Dec 5 Quiet
24 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet
over the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 21 Dec and are
expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
conditions next three days with variable conditions possible
at times Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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