[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 12 issued 2339 UT on 21 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 22 10:39:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day 
Dec 21. Most B-class flares originated from region 1635(N09E44). 
This region has increased in area and magnetic complexity and 
is classified Eki. The other numbered regions on the disk remain 
largely stable. Expect mostly C-class flares with a slight chance 
of M-class flares over the next few days. No significant CME 
activity was observed over the period. Solar wind speed declined 
slowly from 500 to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component showed moderate 
fluctuations about neutral. The solar wind is expected to continue 
decreasing over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22121111
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               4   21210112
      Townsville           6   22221212
      Learmonth            5   22121212
      Norfolk Island       2   21110011
      Culgoora             3   12120111
      Gnangara             5   22121211
      Camden               4   22121111
      Canberra             2   12010001
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   11120000
      Casey               17   45432221
      Mawson              11   33222224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   0221 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     5    Quiet
23 Dec     5    Quiet
24 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet 
over the forecast period.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 21 Dec and are 
expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with 
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric 
conditions next three days with variable conditions possible 
at times Equatorial/N Aus regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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