[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 12 issued 2339 UT on 20 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 21 10:39:04 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours 
with only B-class flares class x-ray flares. The 3 numbered regions 
on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha or beta magnetic 
complexity and less than 300 millionths of disc in size, AR1635 
shows the most potential for M-class flares but still low. Expect 
Low solar activity 20-Dec, with a chance of isolated C-class 
flares and low chance of M-class. The solar wind speed raised 
slowly to near 500km/sec. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT 
range and not conducive to strong IMF-geomagnetic merging.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223212
      Cocos Island         4   11112211
      Darwin               7   22223212
      Townsville           9   22223322
      Learmonth           10   22323322
      Norfolk Island       5   12212212
      Culgoora             7   12223212
      Gnangara             7   21223222
      Camden               8   12323222
      Canberra             5   02213211
      Hobart               9   12323312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    12   02235321
      Casey               20   44533322
      Mawson              14   24333332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 2110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec     5    Quiet
23 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day at mid and low latitudes. Solar wind speed rose again 
slowly towards 500km/sec, possibly due to a solar sector change 
or the northern hemisphere coronal hole taking effect earlier 
than expected. Expect Quiet-Unsettled conditions 21 Dec. The 
three active regions on the disc currently constitute very low 
geomagnetic disturbance threat from their size, magnetic complexity 
and position..

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Dec    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last 
24 hours at mid latitudes. At northern near-equatorial latitudes 
there was more variability than usual, with a large daytime enhancements 
NW and NE of Australia due to activity in the equatorial anomaly. 
T-index rose in response to newly rotated AR16365 adding EUV. 
Expect MUFs on 20-Dec to average near predicted monthly values. 
Some MUF variability possible at mid-latitudes as the solar wind 
speed has picked up earlier than expected from a coronal hole 
and a slight rise in geomagnetic activity to Quiet-Unsettled 
levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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