[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 12 issued 2240 UT on 19 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 20 09:40:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours 
with not even a C class x-ray flare and the background flux declining 
to mid-B levels as two active regions rotated off the disc. The 
4 numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha 
or beta magnetic complexity and less than 300 millionths of disc 
in size, except for AR1633 which is just over 300 millionths 
and beta-gamma, but it is declining. AR1631 will rotate over 
the western limb during the UT day. New AR1635 just rotated onto 
the eastern limb. Expect Low solar activity 20-Dec, with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed declined from 
500km/sec to 400km/sec as the solar coronal hole rotated out 
of geoeffective location. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT 
range and not conducive to strong IMF-geomagnetic merging.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121111
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               3   12111102
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            6   -3222111
      Norfolk Island       2   21111010
      Culgoora             3   12111011
      Gnangara             5   22222111
      Camden               5   12122112
      Canberra             1   01011011
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   12221000
      Casey               25   46533221
      Mawson              16   43423332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1222 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     5    Quiet
21 Dec     5    Quiet
22 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day at mid 
and low latitudes as solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal 
hole, decreased as the hole rotated past geoeffective position. 
Expect continued Quiet conditions until 22 Dec when a small coronal 
hole in the northern solar hemisphere rotates into a geoeffective 
position. No active regions on the disc currently constitute 
a geomagnetic disturbance threat.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last 
24 hours at mid latitudes except for slight depression during 
daytime at southern latitudes, probably due to reduced EUV as 
two active regions rotated off the disc. At northern near-equatorial 
latitudes there was more variability than mid-latitudes, as usual, 
with a large daytime enhancement NW of Australia. Expect MUFs 
on 20-Dec to average near predicted monthly values as AR1635 
just rotated onto the disc adds in new EUV. Low MUF variability 
expected at mid-latitudes as the geomagnetic field returns to 
Quiet, as long as no prolonged IMF Bz southward periods occur.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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