[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 12 issued 2233 UT on 19 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 20 09:33:59 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours with
not even a C class x-ray flare and the background flux declining
to mid-B levels as two active regions rotated off the disc. The
4 numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha
or beta magnetic complexity and less than 300 millionths of disc
in size, except for AR1633 which is just over 300 millionths
and beta-gamma, but it is declining. AR1631 will rotate over
the western limb during the UT day. New AR1635 just rotated onto
the eastern limb. Expect Low solar activity 20-Dec, with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed declined from
500km/sec to 400km/sec as the solar coronal hole rotated out
of geoeffective location. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT
range and not conducive to strong IMF-geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 12111102
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 6 -3222111
Norfolk Island 2 21111010
Culgoora 3 12111011
Gnangara 5 22222111
Camden 5 12122112
Canberra 1 01011011
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12221000
Casey 25 46533221
Mawson 16 43423332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1222 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 5 Quiet
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day at mid
and low latitudes as solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal
hole, decreased as the hole rotated past geoeffective position.
Expect continued Quiet conditions until 22 Dec when a small coronal
hole in the northern solar hemisphere rotates into a geoeffective
position. No active regions on the disc currently constitute
a geomagnetic disturbance threat.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last
24 hours at mid latitudes except for slight depression during
daytime at southern latitudes, probably due to reduced EUV as
two active regions rotated off the disc. At northern near-equatorial
latitudes there was more variability than mid-latitudes, as usual,
with a large daytime enhancement NW of Australia. Expect MUFs
on 20-Dec to average near predicted monthly values as AR1635
just rotated onto the disc adds in new EUV. Low MUF variability
expected at mid-latitudes as the geomagnetic field returns to
Quiet, as long as no prolonged IMF Bz southward periods occur.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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