[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 12 issued 0228 UT on 19 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 19 13:28:23 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours with 
only a single C1 x-ray flare. The 5 numbered regions on the disk 
remain largely stable, with alpha or beta magnetic configurations 
and less than 300 millionths of disc in size. The cluster of 
AR1628, 1631, 1632 is about to rotate over the western limb. 
STEREO-B shows an AR, also probably <300 millionths in size, 
about to rotate onto the eastern limb. Expect Low solar activity 
19-Dec, with a chance of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind 
speed sat in the 450km/s to 500km/sec range over the UT day under 
the influence of the northern tip of a solar coronal hole which 
now appears to be breaking up. IMF Bz was normal, largely in 
the +/-5nT range. The speed should decline over the UT day towards 
350-400km/sec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232212
      Cocos Island         4   11221201
      Darwin               6   21222212
      Townsville           7   22232212
      Learmonth            9   2223----
      Norfolk Island       7   21232212
      Culgoora             6   22222212
      Gnangara             9   32232312
      Camden               7   2223221-
      Canberra             4   22121201
      Hobart               7   22232212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     7   21232301
      Casey               41   554-----
      Mawson              15   33333314

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2333 4200     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     6    Quiet
20 Dec     5    Quiet
21 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day at mid and low latitudes due to the slight increase in 
solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal hole which is now 
dissipating. Expect quietening conditions on 19-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Dec    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last 
24 hours at mid latitudes. At northern near-equatorial latitudes 
there was more variability than mid-latitudes as usual. The region 
NW of Australia again showed significant daytime depressions, 
possibly the result of moderate geomagnetic activity from a coronal 
hole, which will decline over next UT day. Expect MUFs on 19-Dec 
to be average at predicted monthly values with low variability 
at mid-latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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