[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 12 issued 2323 UT on 18 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 19 10:23:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours with
only a single C1 x-ray flare. The 5 numbered regions on the disk
remain largely stable, with alpha or beta magnetic configurations
and less than 300 millionths of disc in size. The cluster of
AR1628, 1631, 1632 is about to rotate over the western limb.
STEREO-B shows an AR, also probably <300 millionths in size, about
to rotate onto the eastern limb. Expect Low solar activity 19-Dec,
with a chance of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed
sat in the 450km/s to 500km/sec range over the UT day under the
influence of the northern tip of a solar coronal hole which
now appears to be breaking up. IMF Bz was normal, largely in
the +/-5nT range. The speed should decline over the UT day towards
350-400km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Cocos Island 4 11221201
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 7 22232212
Learmonth 9 2223----
Norfolk Island 6 21232211
Culgoora 6 22222212
Gnangara 9 32232312
Camden 7 2223221-
Canberra 4 22121201
Hobart 7 22232212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 21232301
Casey 41 554-----
Mawson 15 33333314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2333 4200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 6 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
21 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day at mid and low latitudes due to the slight increase in
solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal hole which is now
dissipating. Expect quietening conditions on 19-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies were near monthly medians over the last
24 hours at mid latitudes. At northern near-equatorial latitudes
there was more variability than mid-latitudes as usual. The region
NW of Australia again showed significant daytime depressions,
possibly the result of moderate geomagnetic activity from a coronal
hole, which will decline over next UT day. Expect MUFs on 19-Dec
to be average at predicted monthly values with low variability
at mid-latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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