[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 12 issued 2337 UT on 17 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 18 10:37:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. The
5 numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha
or beta magnetic configurations and less than 300 millionths
of disc in size. Expect Low solar activity 18-Dec, with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed rose slightly
during the day from 400km/s to ~450km/sec under the influence
of the northern tip of a large solar coronal hole in the southern
polar region. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT range
with occasional periods slightly below -5nT 02-11UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Cocos Island 5 21132201
Darwin 7 2-132212
Townsville 10 32232322
Learmonth 13 33333322
Norfolk Island 7 21332201
Culgoora 8 22332212
Gnangara 10 32233312
Camden 8 22332211
Canberra 6 21232202
Hobart 10 32333211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 17 23445300
Casey 22 44544222
Mawson 17 33434233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2022 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day at mid and low latitudes due to the slight increase in
solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal hole. Expect similar
conditions early on 18-Dec before return to Quiet for 19-20 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the last 24 hours,
particularly at northern near-equatorial latitudes. Expect similar
MUF variability 18-Dec due to modest geomagnetic disturbance
from mildly elevated solar wind velocity due to edge of a coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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