[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 12 issued 2337 UT on 17 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 18 10:37:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. The 
5 numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha 
or beta magnetic configurations and less than 300 millionths 
of disc in size. Expect Low solar activity 18-Dec, with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed rose slightly 
during the day from 400km/s to ~450km/sec under the influence 
of the northern tip of a large solar coronal hole in the southern 
polar region. IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT range 
with occasional periods slightly below -5nT 02-11UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232212
      Cocos Island         5   21132201
      Darwin               7   2-132212
      Townsville          10   32232322
      Learmonth           13   33333322
      Norfolk Island       7   21332201
      Culgoora             8   22332212
      Gnangara            10   32233312
      Camden               8   22332211
      Canberra             6   21232202
      Hobart              10   32333211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    17   23445300
      Casey               22   44544222
      Mawson              17   33434233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2022 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec     5    Quiet
20 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day at mid and low latitudes due to the slight increase in 
solar wind speed from the edge of a coronal hole. Expect similar 
conditions early on 18-Dec before return to Quiet for 19-20 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the last 24 hours, 
particularly at northern near-equatorial latitudes. Expect similar 
MUF variability 18-Dec due to modest geomagnetic disturbance 
from mildly elevated solar wind velocity due to edge of a coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    71300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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