[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 12 issued 2332 UT on 16 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 17 10:32:35 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. The 
numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable. Expect Low 
solar activity 17-Dec, with a chance of isolated C-class flares. 
The solar wind speed remains near 400km/s. A sustained period 
of mildly southwards directed IMF (IMF Bz~-5nT) was observed 
03-11UT 15-Dec. ACE EPAM energetic ions dropped back below event 
level after yesterdays mild enhancement.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21122222
      Cocos Island         5   21212221
      Darwin               5   20112222
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth           10   22233322
      Norfolk Island       4   11121112
      Culgoora             5   11122221
      Gnangara             6   21122222
      Camden               6   21122222
      Canberra             3   10121111
      Hobart               6   12222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     6   11124111
      Casey               15   45322222
      Mawson              14   33233333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    12    Unsettled
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet over the UT day. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day 1 (17 Dec), 
with isolated Active periods, and a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
days 2 and 3 (18-19 Dec).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Dec    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the last 24 hours. 
Some degraded HF conditions were observed at southern locations 
during the day. Overall, MUFs were mildly depressed during the 
local day, particularly after local dawn, and near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced overnight. Expect similar conditions 
17-Dec, with mild MUF depressions during the day, particularly 
at S.Aus locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    64600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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