[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 12 issued 2335 UT on 15 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 16 10:35:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. Further 
analysis of the CME observed 14/0224UT and reported yesterday 
indicates it was associated with an erupting filament on the 
west limb and was strongly westward directed. It is not expected 
to be geoeffective. The numbered regions on the disk remain largely 
stable. Expect Low solar activity 16-Dec, with a chance of isolated 
C-class flares. The solar wind speed increased over the period 
to be near 400km/s at time of reporting, and the IMF has been 
fluctuating about a mildly southwards baseline. ACE EPAM data 
indicates a mild energetic ion enhancement event beginning 15/1520UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22223222
      Cocos Island         6   31222211
      Darwin               6   21222212
      Townsville           9   22323222
      Learmonth           12   23333322
      Norfolk Island       6   22222112
      Culgoora             6   22223111
      Gnangara             9   -2223322
      Camden               9   22323222
      Canberra             4   11222111
      Hobart               9   22323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   22124301
      Casey               26   56433232
      Mawson              20   43333353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1100 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec    12    Unsettled
18 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day. Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day 
1 (16 Dec), mostly Unsettled conditions day 2 (17-Dec), with 
possible isolated Active periods, and a return to mostly Quiet 
conditions day 3 (18-Dec).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced 
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the 
next three days, 16-18 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list