[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 12 issued 2335 UT on 15 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 16 10:35:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours. Further
analysis of the CME observed 14/0224UT and reported yesterday
indicates it was associated with an erupting filament on the
west limb and was strongly westward directed. It is not expected
to be geoeffective. The numbered regions on the disk remain largely
stable. Expect Low solar activity 16-Dec, with a chance of isolated
C-class flares. The solar wind speed increased over the period
to be near 400km/s at time of reporting, and the IMF has been
fluctuating about a mildly southwards baseline. ACE EPAM data
indicates a mild energetic ion enhancement event beginning 15/1520UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 6 31222211
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 12 23333322
Norfolk Island 6 22222112
Culgoora 6 22223111
Gnangara 9 -2223322
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 4 11222111
Hobart 9 22323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 22124301
Casey 26 56433232
Mawson 20 43333353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1100 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec 12 Unsettled
18 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day. Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day
1 (16 Dec), mostly Unsettled conditions day 2 (17-Dec), with
possible isolated Active periods, and a return to mostly Quiet
conditions day 3 (18-Dec).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the
next three days, 16-18 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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