[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 12 issued 2353 UT on 14 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 15 10:53:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours, 
with no significant front-sided flare activity. Background X-ray 
flux steadily increased over the day. A westward-directed CME 
was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery from 0224UT. We are still 
determining the source of this eruption and whether there was 
any significant Earth-directed component however preliminary 
analysis suggests not. The numbered regions on the disk remain 
largely stable. Expect Low solar activity 15-Dec, with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow, 
and the IMF is stable, expected to continue 15-Dec. A deep coronal 
hole at relatively high solar latitudes may elevate solar wind 
speeds from 17-Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211122
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville          12   233-----
      Learmonth            8   23321122
      Norfolk Island       5   22210122
      Culgoora             5   22211122
      Camden               5   22211122
      Canberra             3   12200012
      Hobart               5   22211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   010000--
      Casey               16   44400---
      Mawson               5   331000--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec     5    Quiet
16 Dec     5    Quiet
17 Dec    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next two days (15-16 Dec). 
Unsettled conditions expected 17-Dec, with possible isolated 
Active periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced 
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the 
next three days, 14-16 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    30900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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