[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 12 issued 2331 UT on 13 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 14 10:31:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day 
Dec 13. There was a C1 level event from AR1632 (N17W28) at 1922UT. 
Expect Very Low solar activity 14-16 Dec, with a chance of isolated 
C-class flares. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed over 
the period. The solar wind speed remained below 330 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component showed moderate fluctuations about neutral. 
The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Darwin               6   22122212
      Townsville           5   22111221
      Learmonth            5   22111212
      Alice Springs        4   21111112
      Norfolk Island       3   12100112
      Culgoora             2   21010111
      Gnangara             5   22111212
      Camden               3   22011111
      Canberra             2   22000111
      Hobart               4   22111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   12000010
      Casey               13   35421111
      Mawson               7   33111113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec     5    Quiet
15 Dec     5    Quiet
16 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field stayed at Quiet levels 
today. Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Dec   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced 
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the 
next three days, 14-16 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    30900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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