[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 13 10:30:20 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours, with 
a C5 event from AR1629 (N11W24) the only significant front-sided 
flare activity. The numbered regions on the disk remain largely 
stable. Expect Very Low solar activity 13-Dec, with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow 
(~300km/s at time of this report), and the IMF is stable, expected 
to continue 13-Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21221112
      Darwin               7   32222112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            6   31222112
      Alice Springs        3   21121002
      Norfolk Island       4   21111112
      Culgoora             2   20211001
      Gnangara             5   21221112
      Camden               4   21211012
      Canberra             2   10211001
      Hobart               4   21221101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey               10   33332212
      Mawson               7   21122223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     5    Quiet
14 Dec     5    Quiet
15 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with 
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric 
conditions across the region next three days. Diurnal variability 
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions 
possible local day/evening S Aus region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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