[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 13 10:30:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous 24 hours, with
a C5 event from AR1629 (N11W24) the only significant front-sided
flare activity. The numbered regions on the disk remain largely
stable. Expect Very Low solar activity 13-Dec, with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow
(~300km/s at time of this report), and the IMF is stable, expected
to continue 13-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21221112
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 31222112
Alice Springs 3 21121002
Norfolk Island 4 21111112
Culgoora 2 20211001
Gnangara 5 21221112
Camden 4 21211012
Canberra 2 10211001
Hobart 4 21221101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 10 33332212
Mawson 7 21122223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
conditions across the region next three days. Diurnal variability
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions
possible local day/evening S Aus region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 46900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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