[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 12 10:30:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours, 
with no significant front-side flare activity. The two numbered 
regions on the disk remain largely stable. Region 1618 (N9) which 
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Dec. 
Expect Very Low solar activity 12-Dec, with a small chance of 
isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow (~300km/s 
at time of this report), and the IMF is stable, expected to continue 
12-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111122
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Townsville           4   12111122
      Learmonth            6   32112122
      Alice Springs        5   32111012
      Norfolk Island       2   11000112
      Culgoora             2   11100022
      Gnangara             4   22111112
      Camden               3   21101022
      Canberra             1   11100011
      Hobart               3   22100112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   12000000
      Casey               11   34421112
      Mawson               7   23112123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1001 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec     5    Quiet
13 Dec     5    Quiet
14 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Dec    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with 
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric 
conditions across the region next three days. Diurnal variability 
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions 
possible local day/evening S Aus region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    47900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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