[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 12 issued 2324 UT on 10 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 11 10:24:29 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Active regions 1629 (N12E06) and 1630 (N19W10) have 
been largely stable. An impulsive C5.5 level flare originated 
in AR 1630 (N18W01) at 0558UT, with a Type III noise burst observed 
on Culgoora Radiospectrograph. Solar wind speed declined slightly 
from 340 to 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-4nT 
with a mild Southward bias over most of the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21121122
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           5   22221121
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Alice Springs        4   21111112
      Norfolk Island       4   11111122
      Culgoora             3   11111111
      Gnangara             4   22111112
      Camden               4   11122121
      Canberra             2   11111011
      Hobart               4   21221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   11022011
      Casey               19   46322122
      Mawson               9   43112212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0100 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     5    Quiet
12 Dec     5    Quiet
13 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes. Brief Unsettled to Active intervals were observed 
at polar cusp latitudes with Active to Minor Storm intervals 
in the polar cap during the first few hours of the UT day. The 
observed high latitude activity is probably due to sustained 
mild Southward bias in the IMF Bz component over 09-10 Dec. Similar 
activity is possible day one of the forecast period if Bz maintains 
this condition, but is less likely if solar wind speeds continue 
to decline.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin depressed 30% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      with isolated periods of strong sporadic-E.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the 
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around 
local dawn. Periods of sporadic-E conditions possible local day/evening 
S Aus region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    59200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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