[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 12 issued 2321 UT on 09 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 10 10:21:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day 
Dec 09. There was a C1 level event from AR1630 (N19E03) at 1747UT. 
This region has increased slightly in magnetic complexity and 
is classified Dsi. Solar wind speed increased slightly to 330 
km/s over the first few hours of the UT day and has maintained 
that speed for the remainder of the day. The IMF Bz component 
showed moderate fluctuations about neutral and has maintained 
a moderate Southward bias of -6nT since 10UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222223
      Darwin               9   32222223
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            8   22222223
      Alice Springs        6   22121113
      Norfolk Island       3   01111122
      Culgoora             6   22112123
      Gnangara             8   22222223
      Camden               6   22112123
      Canberra             5   11112123
      Hobart               6   11222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   01002112
      Casey               15   35422222
      Mawson              15   22123245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec     5    Quiet
11 Dec     5    Quiet
12 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind Bz component has maintained a moderate (-6nT) 
Southward bias over the second half of the UT day. Geomagnetic 
activity has been limited by the relatively slow solar wind speed 
(~330km/s). Isolated Unsettled intervals were observed at polar 
cap latitudes only. Otherwise the regional geomagnetic field 
was Quiet. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Dec    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Periods of blanketing sporadic-E local evening
      and around local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the 
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around 
local dawn.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 268 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    16700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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