[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 08 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 9 10:25:35 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day 
Dec 08. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1523UT 
on 08 Dec, accompanied by an IMF phi component phase reversal. 
Otherwise solar wind parameters were nominal. The IMF Bz component 
was neutral (+/-2nT).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            4   21111212
      Alice Springs        3   21110102
      Norfolk Island       1   10000012
      Culgoora             1   10110011
      Gnangara             3   11111111
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Hobart               2   11110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   23221111
      Mawson               3   10011122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec     5    Quiet
10 Dec     5    Quiet
11 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal despite a very 
weak solar wind shock passage observed at 1523UT. The regional 
geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes. Expect Quiet conditions 
next three days. Chance of Unsettled periods day one due to a possible
delayed glancing blow from the CME observed Dec 06.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor high-latitude HF disturbances possible Dec 09.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Normal to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the 
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around 
local dawn. Minor disturbances possible Antarctic region day 
one.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    26900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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