[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 05 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 6 10:25:32 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: A C1.7 level X-ray flare was observed at 0028UT on the 
E limb at N09. An associated E-directed CME is unlikely to be 
geoeffective. The origin of this event is newly numbered active 
region 1628, now at N12E68. All other active regions on the visible 
disc are stable or declining. Solar wind speed declined slowly 
from 400 to 350 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was neutral 
(+/-3nT) over the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110112
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   21121112
      Alice Springs        2   21110002
      Norfolk Island       2   20100012
      Culgoora             2   10100012
      Gnangara             3   11111111
      Camden               2   11110012
      Canberra             1   10100002
      Hobart               2   10110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                8   32321122
      Mawson               7   21110143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1221 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec     5    Quiet
07 Dec     5    Quiet
08 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT 
day. An isolated Unsettled interval was observed at polar cusp 
stations late in the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Dec    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUF 
depressions observed around local dawn at low to mid latitudes. 
Expect similar conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    93300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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