[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 5 10:30:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day.
Solar wind speed remains steady at 350-400 km/s. The Bz component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was disturbed over the first
half of the UT day with periods of Southward excursion to -10nT.
Bz was mostly neutral over the second half of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 23311111
Darwin 7 23321112
Townsville 7 23321111
Learmonth 8 23322112
Alice Springs 6 23311011
Norfolk Island 4 23210002
Culgoora 5 23310011
Gnangara 7 23321112
Camden 5 23310011
Canberra 4 13310010
Hobart 7 24310101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12200000
Casey 34 37632122
Mawson 17 35322143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0020 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 5 Quiet
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to minor disturbances in the solar wind during the
first half of the UT day, there were periods of Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions at most low to mid latitude stations. Briefly Unsettled
to Minor Storm intervals were observed at high latitudes. Conditions
during the second half of the UT day were Quiet at all latitudes.
Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Briefly depressed before local dawn,
otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Learmonth depressed 15-30%.
Darwin, Townsville depressed 20% before local
dawn, otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Perth depressed 15%.
Brisbane, Norfolk Island depressed 15% before
local dawn.
Other stations mildly depressed over the UT day
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of disturbance due to weak ionisation.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly slightly below predicted monthly values
due to weak solar EUV radiation. MUF depressions most evident
around local dawn at low to mid latitudes. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 41600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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