[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 5 10:30:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day. 
Solar wind speed remains steady at 350-400 km/s. The Bz component 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was disturbed over the first 
half of the UT day with periods of Southward excursion to -10nT. 
Bz was mostly neutral over the second half of the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23311111
      Darwin               7   23321112
      Townsville           7   23321111
      Learmonth            8   23322112
      Alice Springs        6   23311011
      Norfolk Island       4   23210002
      Culgoora             5   23310011
      Gnangara             7   23321112
      Camden               5   23310011
      Canberra             4   13310010
      Hobart               7   24310101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   12200000
      Casey               34   37632122
      Mawson              17   35322143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0020 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     5    Quiet
06 Dec     5    Quiet
07 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to minor disturbances in the solar wind during the 
first half of the UT day, there were periods of Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions at most low to mid latitude stations. Briefly Unsettled 
to Minor Storm intervals were observed at high latitudes. Conditions 
during the second half of the UT day were Quiet at all latitudes. 
Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Briefly depressed before local dawn,      
      otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Learmonth depressed 15-30%.
      Darwin, Townsville depressed 20% before local 
      dawn, otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Perth depressed 15%.
      Brisbane, Norfolk Island depressed 15% before 
      local dawn. 
      Other stations mildly depressed over the UT day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of disturbance due to weak ionisation.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly slightly below predicted monthly values 
due to weak solar EUV radiation. MUF depressions most evident 
around local dawn at low to mid latitudes. Expect similar conditions 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    41600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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