[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 03 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 4 10:25:37 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24 
hours. Solar active regions generally stable. Solar wind speed 
was steady at ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222212
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           7   --321222
      Learmonth            9   -3222223
      Alice Springs        6   --222212
      Norfolk Island       3   11111112
      Culgoora             5   11112113
      Gnangara             7   21222223
      Camden               5   12222112
      Canberra             4   01122212
      Hobart               5   11221212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     4   01222112
      Casey               18   34533223
      Mawson               8   23212223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2232 2100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec     5    Quiet
05 Dec     5    Quiet
06 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels at 
low to mid latitudes. Isolated Unsettled periods observed during 
the first half of the UT day at some high latitude stations. 
Expect Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Dec    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Darwin enhanced 15-30% 11-16UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted monthly values during 
the last 24 hours. Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected 
for 04-06 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    24000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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