[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 12 issued 2349 UT on 02 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 3 10:49:14 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: All visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately 
quiet during 2 Dec. Two (A1623 and 1625) out of three regions 
on the disk are declining. The current spot groups are not particularly 
active, solar activity is expected to be mostly at Very Low levels 
over the next 3 days. CME activity observed during 02 Dec (~1030UT 
and 1630 UT) is not Earth directed and is not expected to be 
geoeffective. The solar wind speed remained below 350 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component had a mild southward bias to -7nT during the 
first part of the UT day. The solar wind is expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22333111
      Darwin               9   22333112
      Townsville           9   22333211
      Learmonth            9   22333112
      Alice Springs        8   22333101
      Norfolk Island       7   11333002
      Culgoora             7   22333100
      Gnangara             8   22333111
      Camden               8   22333111
      Canberra             6   12333000
      Hobart               8   22333101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     6   12422000
      Casey               12   34332212
      Mawson              13   43332322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 1032     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec     5    Quiet
04 Dec     5    Quiet
05 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels during the last 24 hours. Unsettled activity occurred 
in the first half of the UT day, 02 Dec. This activity was associated 
with a mild prolonged southward Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field peaking near -7nT at ~08UT. Geomagnetic activity 
has decrease and is expected to remain Quiet for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Dec    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
    Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressions to 20%; 20-22 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressions to 20%;19-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted monthly values during 
the last 24. Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected 
for 03-05 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    26200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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