[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 12 issued 2347 UT on 01 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 2 10:47:06 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed during
1 December; only low level C flares,the greatest magnitude being
a C1.9 from region 1620 at 1030UT as it passed the west limb.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Low for the next
few days. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed over the period.
Solar wind parameters were stable with solar wind speed steady
at ~320 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained stable,
maintained a mostly northward bias to about +5nT after ~0003UT.
Over the last several hours however Bz has turned southward and
is currently at -4nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly
undisturbed over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 7 22112232
Alice Springs 5 11112222
Norfolk Island 3 11101122
Culgoora 4 01112122
Gnangara 6 21112232
Camden 5 11112222
Canberra 2 01101121
Hobart 4 11211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 11 24321133
Mawson 18 32211264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 7 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. An isolated Unsettled to Storm period observed
at polar cusp latitudes at~21UT probably in response to a sustained
period of southward IMF late in the UT day. No CMEs are currently
in transit towards the Earth. Geomagnetic activity should be
mostly Quiet over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next three
days, 02-04 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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