[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 12 issued 2347 UT on 01 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 2 10:47:06 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed during 
1 December; only low level C flares,the greatest magnitude being 
a C1.9 from region 1620 at 1030UT as it passed the west limb. 
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Low for the next 
few days. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed over the period. 
Solar wind parameters were stable with solar wind speed steady 
at ~320 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained stable, 
maintained a mostly northward bias to about +5nT after ~0003UT. 
Over the last several hours however Bz has turned southward and 
is currently at -4nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            7   22112232
      Alice Springs        5   11112222
      Norfolk Island       3   11101122
      Culgoora             4   01112122
      Gnangara             6   21112232
      Camden               5   11112222
      Canberra             2   01101121
      Hobart               4   11211112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000011
      Casey               11   24321133
      Mawson              18   32211264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0001 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec     7    Quiet
03 Dec     5    Quiet
04 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. An isolated Unsettled to Storm period observed 
at polar cusp latitudes at~21UT probably in response to a sustained 
period of southward IMF late in the UT day. No CMEs are currently 
in transit towards the Earth. Geomagnetic activity should be 
mostly Quiet over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the 
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next three 
days, 02-04 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    23500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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