[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 12 issued 2344 UT on 30 Nov 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 1 10:44:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Regions 1620((S13W81) and 1625((N14E36)produced multiple 
C flares,the greatest magnitude being a C5.4 from region 1620 
at 17485UT. This region, previously a complex beta-gamma-delta 
region, has decayed in size and complexity. Most C-class(low-level)flares 
originated from region 1625.This region is classified Dao with 
a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Expect mostly C-class flares 
with a chance of M-class flares, possibly from regions 1620 and 
1625 over the next few days. No Earthward directed CMEs were 
observed over the period. ACE parameters doesn't appear to indicate 
the arrival of the forecast CME of 27 Nov. The solar wind conditions 
remain ambient. A small coronal hole wind stream may increase 
the solar wind speed 01-02 Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           5   1222112-
      Learmonth            5   21132111
      Alice Springs        4   2112111-
      Norfolk Island       2   10120011
      Culgoora             2   10121011
      Gnangara             4   2112211-
      Camden               3   11121111
      Canberra             1   10020000
      Hobart               2   11121001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                9   33422110
      Mawson               6   3222120-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. Chance of Unsettled periods at low to mid 
latitudes and isolated Active intervals at high latitudes days 
one and two due to an anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times over the 
forecast period in response to possible elevated geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
02 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
03 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values during 30 Nov. 
Mild depressions may occur at times during 1-2 Dec in response 
to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    24900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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