[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 12 issued 2327 UT on 06 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 7 10:27:34 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day 
Dec 06. A W-directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery after 
0330UT. This was associated with a filament eruption in the SW 
quadrant. Solar wind speed declined slowly from 350 to 300 km/s. 
The Bz component of the IMF was neutral (+/-2nT) over the UT 
day. Region 1613 (S24) which previously produced M-flare(s) is 
due to return around 7 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               4   21211112
      Townsville           4   12111121
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Alice Springs        2   21110001
      Norfolk Island       2   11000012
      Culgoora             0   00000010
      Gnangara             3   21111111
      Camden               2   11101011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   33331012
      Mawson               4   21112012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              1   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec     5    Quiet
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal. The regional geomagnetic 
field was Quiet at all latitudes over the UT day Dec 06. A W-directed 
CME in association with a filament eruption observed early in 
the UT day Dec 06 may have an Earth-directed component. Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions could result on Dec 07-08.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor high-latitude HF disturbances possible Dec 07-08.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
at most stations. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions 
across the region next three days. Minor disturbances possible 
Antarctic region days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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