[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 30 09:29:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been at Low levels over the 
past 24 hours. The most significant X-ray flare was a C4 at around 
20UT, originating around the south-west limb. The solar wind 
spped decayed slightly from 550-450km/s over the day with near 
neutral IMF Bz. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels 
over the next 3 days. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected 
to come into effect late on day 1 of the forecast period, the 
30th of August, remaining in effect through the 31st then waning 
on the 1st of September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Darwin               2   12100102
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            4   22111201
      Norfolk Island       1   11000110
      Camden               1   11100101
      Canberra             1   01000101
      Hobart               1   01100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               8   33411001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug    12    Unsettled
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are currently Quiet. A coronal hole 
high speed stream in expected to cause Unsettled conditions from 
late on the 30th and into the 31st of August with a chance of 
isolated Active periods. These conditions should started to settle 
back to mostly Quiet from the 1st of September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values 
for central and southern Australia and mildly depressed in northern 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list