[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 30 09:29:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been at Low levels over the 
past 24 hours. The most significant X-ray flare was a C4 at around 
20UT, originating around the south-west limb. The solar wind 
spped decayed slightly from 550-450km/s over the day with near 
neutral IMF Bz. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels 
over the next 3 days. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected 
to come into effect late on day 1 of the forecast period, the 
30th of August, remaining in effect through the 31st then waning 
on the 1st of September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Darwin               2   12100102
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            4   22111201
      Norfolk Island       1   11000110
      Camden               1   11100101
      Canberra             1   01000101
      Hobart               1   01100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               8   33411001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug    12    Unsettled
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are currently Quiet. A coronal hole 
high speed stream in expected to cause Unsettled conditions from 
late on the 30th and into the 31st of August with a chance of 
isolated Active periods. These conditions should started to settle 
back to mostly Quiet from the 1st of September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values 
for central and southern Australia and mildly depressed in northern 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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