[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 12 issued 2338 UT on 28 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 29 09:38:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remains at very low levels. The
solar wind speed is moderated, ranging between 450-550 km/s.
All currently visible active regions are small and magnetically
simple. Flare activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels for the next few days. A coronal hole high speed stream
is expected to come into effect late on the 30th of August UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11011001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 4 22111111
Norfolk Island 1 11001000
Camden 1 11011001
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 1 11001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey - --------
Mawson 8 33220123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2321 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 5 Quiet
30 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet. This is expected
to continue through the 29th and most of the 30th. Late on the
30th August UT a weak coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
may cause some Unsettled periods, extending into the 31st.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values.
Periods of mild MUF depressions were observed in northern and
equatorial regions. These conditions are expected to persist
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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