[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 12 issued 2338 UT on 28 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 29 09:38:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remains at very low levels. The 
solar wind speed is moderated, ranging between 450-550 km/s. 
All currently visible active regions are small and magnetically 
simple. Flare activity is expected to remain at very low to low 
levels for the next few days. A coronal hole high speed stream 
is expected to come into effect late on the 30th of August UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011001
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           4   22112111
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Norfolk Island       1   11001000
      Camden               1   11011001
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               1   11001001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               8   33220123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2321 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     5    Quiet
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet. This is expected 
to continue through the 29th and most of the 30th. Late on the 
30th August UT a weak coronal hole high speed solar wind stream 
may cause some Unsettled periods, extending into the 31st.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values. 
Periods of mild MUF depressions were observed in northern and 
equatorial regions. These conditions are expected to persist 
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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