[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 12 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 28 09:30:00 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been at very low levels for 
the past few days. The solar wind speed decayed from around 700 
to 500 km/s over the day. All currently visible active regions 
are small and magnetically simple. Flare activity is expected 
to remain at very low to low levels for the next few days. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue to decay back to ambient 
levels as the recent coronal hole high speed stream abates.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110101
      Darwin               4   32210101
      Townsville           6   22221221
      Learmonth            6   23221211
      Norfolk Island       2   12110000
      Camden               3   22110101
      Canberra             2   12110100
      Hobart               2   12110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   1-------
      Casey               11   34421211
      Mawson              15   34321125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1222 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug     5    Quiet
29 Aug     5    Quiet
30 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions over the Australian continent were 
Quiet and are expected to remain Quiet over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
at low and mid latitudes today during local night. Minor to mild 
MUF depressions may be observed for the next three days, especially 
at mid and high latitude locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Local daytime MUFs are near predicted monthly values. 
Periods of mild MUF depressions continue to be observed during 
local night over low to mid latitudes. These conditions are expected 
to persist for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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