[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 12 issued 2353 UT on 26 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 27 09:53:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. One C1
flare was observed at 1817UT from the eastern limb. As previously
anticipated, the coronal hole effect kept the solar wind stream
stronger than normal. Solar wind speed varied between 500 km/s
to 600 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8
nT for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low with some possibility of C-class flare
activity for the next 3 days. Effects of high speed solar wind
streams from two coronal holes may keep the solar wind stream
strengthened for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 12223232
Darwin 8 12223232
Townsville 8 12223232
Learmonth 11 22233332
Norfolk Island 6 12122131
Camden 8 12223232
Canberra 7 02123231
Hobart 9 12124231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 11125222
Casey 23 34333362
Mawson 25 33433264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2233 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 8 Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Unsettled
29 Aug 8 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled on
26 August. Due to coronal hole effects, Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Unsettled levels with some
possibility of Active periods for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed for the next three days, especially at mid and
high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
28 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
29 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed for the next three days, especially in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 542 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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