[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 12 issued 2353 UT on 26 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 27 09:53:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. One C1 
flare was observed at 1817UT from the eastern limb. As previously 
anticipated, the coronal hole effect kept the solar wind stream 
stronger than normal. Solar wind speed varied between 500 km/s 
to 600 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8 
nT for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low to Low with some possibility of C-class flare 
activity for the next 3 days. Effects of high speed solar wind 
streams from two coronal holes may keep the solar wind stream 
strengthened for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12223232
      Darwin               8   12223232
      Townsville           8   12223232
      Learmonth           11   22233332
      Norfolk Island       6   12122131
      Camden               8   12223232
      Canberra             7   02123231
      Hobart               9   12124231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    10   11125222
      Casey               23   34333362
      Mawson              25   33433264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2233 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug     8    Unsettled
28 Aug     8    Unsettled
29 Aug     8    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled on 
26 August. Due to coronal hole effects, Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly at Unsettled levels with some 
possibility of Active periods for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
28 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
29 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed for the next three days, especially at mid and 
high latitude locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
28 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
29 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed for the next three days, especially in the Southern 
Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 542 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   246000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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