[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 12 issued 2353 UT on 25 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 26 09:53:36 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. One C1.7 
flare was observed at 0236UT from region 1554(N15W00). As previously 
anticipated, the coronal hole effect kept the solar wind stream 
stronger than normal. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 
440 km/s to 600 km/s between 0200 and 0600UT today, and then 
stayed enhanced between 500 km/s and 600 km/s during the remaining 
parts of the UT day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-6 
nT for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low with some possibility of C-class flare activity 
for the next 3 days. The currently in-progess effect of the coronal 
may be expected to weaken to bring back the solar wind stream 
to normal levels by 27 August. The effect of another coronal 
hole may then start to strengthen the solar wind stream from 
28 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23233322
      Darwin              10   23232322
      Townsville          11   23233322
      Learmonth           11   33223322
      Norfolk Island       6   12222222
      Camden              10   22233322
      Canberra            10   23233321
      Hobart              11   23233322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    12   02443321
      Casey               15   35322223
      Mawson              29   34444355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            69   (Active)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2322 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug    10    Unsettled
27 Aug     6    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today with some active periods on high latitudes. 
Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole, mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated active 
periods may be expected on 26 August. Geomagnetic activity may 
then be expected to gradually decline to quiet to unsettled levels 
on 27 August as the current effect of the coronal hole is expected 
to weaken around that time. Effect of another coronal hole may 
again raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on 28 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed on 26 and at times on 28 August due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 27 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    57    Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    57    Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed on 26 and at times on 28 August in the Australian/NZ 
regions due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on 27 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    56100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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