[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 12 issued 2352 UT on 24 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 25 09:52:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Only some low B-class flares were observed. Solar wind speed
mostly varied between 360 and 430 km/s today. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time during the UT day today. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. A high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole is expected to keep the
solar wind stream relatively stronger for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 12223122
Darwin 5 11113122
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 7 2222321-
Norfolk Island 5 22222111
Camden 6 11223122
Canberra 3 1-------
Hobart 5 11223111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 21234001
Casey 9 3232312-
Mawson 16 44322234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3332 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 Unsettled to Active
26 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
27 Aug 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic
activity were observed today with some active periods on
high latitudes. Due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole, unsettled to active conditions
may be expected on 25 and 26 August. Geomagnetic activity may
then be expected to gradually decline to unsettled levels on
27 August as the effect of the coronal hole is expected to
weaken around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
26 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on mid latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed on 25 and 26 August due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period. HF conditions
are expected to improve by 27 August with the possibilities of
mostly normal conditions on low latitudes and minor MUF depressions
on mid and high latitudes on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 50 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 55 Depressed 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on mid latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed on 25 and 26 August in the Australian/NZ regions
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels through
this period. HF conditions are expected to improve by 27 August
with the possibilities of mostly normal conditions in Northern
Australian/NZ regions and minor MUF depressions in Central and
Southern Australian/NZ regions on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 90800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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