[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 12 issued 2352 UT on 24 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 25 09:52:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Only some low B-class flares were observed. Solar wind speed 
mostly varied between 360 and 430 km/s today. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT, staying southwards for relatively 
longer periods of time during the UT day today. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. A high speed 
solar wind stream from a coronal hole is expected to keep the 
solar wind stream relatively stronger for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223122
      Darwin               5   11113122
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            7   2222321-
      Norfolk Island       5   22222111
      Camden               6   11223122
      Canberra             3   1-------
      Hobart               5   11223111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     7   21234001
      Casey                9   3232312-
      Mawson              16   44322234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3332 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     8    Unsettled to Active
26 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active
27 Aug    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic 
activity were observed today with some active periods on 
high latitudes. Due to the effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a coronal hole, unsettled to active conditions 
may be expected on 25 and 26 August. Geomagnetic activity may 
then be expected to gradually decline to unsettled levels on 
27 August as the effect of the coronal hole is expected to 
weaken around that time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on mid latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed on 25 and 26 August due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period. HF conditions 
are expected to improve by 27 August with the possibilities of 
mostly normal conditions on low latitudes and minor MUF depressions 
on mid and high latitudes on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug    50    Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    55    Depressed 10%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on mid latitudes today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed on 25 and 26 August in the Australian/NZ regions 
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels through 
this period. HF conditions are expected to improve by 27 August 
with the possibilities of mostly normal conditions in Northern 
Australian/NZ regions and minor MUF depressions in Central and 
Southern Australian/NZ regions on this day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    90800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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