[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 12 issued 2354 UT on 23 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 24 09:54:32 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Only some low B-class flares were observed. Solar wind speed 
mostly varied between 380 and 440 km/s today. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT, staying southwards for relatively 
longer periods of time during the UT day today. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days. A high 
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may strengthen the 
solar wind stream from late hours of 25 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322221
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           9   22332222
      Learmonth            9   33223221
      Norfolk Island       8   23322220
      Camden               7   22322221
      Canberra             6   12232220
      Hobart               9   22333221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    11   133-----
      Casey                9   332221--
      Mawson              27   44343363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1211 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug     5    Quiet
25 Aug     7    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on 24 and most parts of 25 August. A rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels to unsettled level late on 25 August and unsettled to 
active levels on 26 August may be expected due to the effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed 
today on mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on most locations for the next 2 days. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be observed on the 3rd day due an expected rise 
in geomagnetic activity levels around this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug    50    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed 
on mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions on most locations 
may be expected for the next 2 days with the possibility of minor 
to moderate MUF depressions on the 3rd day due to an expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels around this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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