[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 12 issued 2344 UT on 22 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 23 09:44:11 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Only some low B-class flares were observed. Solar wind speed 
showed a gradual increase from 360 to 440 km/s today. The Bz 
component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT for most parts of the 
UT day today. A CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 1118UT/22 
August. This CME does not seem to be geo-effective. A full halo 
CME, that was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 2024UT/21 August, 
is a back side event and is not going to be geoeffective. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Darwin               4   12112201
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            6   32122211
      Norfolk Island       3   1-112111
      Camden               3   21112101
      Canberra             2   11012100
      Hobart               3   11112101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   11113100
      Casey                8   33321111
      Mawson              15   33211145

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2212 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     5    Quiet
24 Aug     5    Quiet
25 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were 
observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed 
today on mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on most locations for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were 
observed on mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions 
on most locations may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    84200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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