[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 21 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 22 09:32:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Only some low B-class flares were observed. As anticipated, solar 
wind speed showed a further gradual decline from 480 to 360 km/s 
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +/-4 nT, staying 
southwards for relatively longer periods of time through the 
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122211
      Darwin               5   21122202
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            5   21------
      Norfolk Island       6   2-321211
      Camden               4   11122211
      Canberra             3   01022201
      Hobart               5   11122301    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     7   11133310
      Casey               10   33332212
      Mawson              22   32333246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3432 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     5    Quiet
23 Aug     5    Quiet
24 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were 
observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed 
today on mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on most locations for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were 
observed on mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions 
on most locations may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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