[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 21 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 22 09:32:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Only some low B-class flares were observed. As anticipated, solar
wind speed showed a further gradual decline from 480 to 360 km/s
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +/-4 nT, staying
southwards for relatively longer periods of time through the
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Darwin 5 21122202
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 5 21------
Norfolk Island 6 2-321211
Camden 4 11122211
Canberra 3 01022201
Hobart 5 11122301
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 11133310
Casey 10 33332212
Mawson 22 32333246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3432 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 5 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were
observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed
today on mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on most locations for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were
observed on mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions
on most locations may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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