[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 12 issued 2354 UT on 20 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 21 09:54:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very Low to low Very Low to low Very Low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a B8 flare at 2315UT. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days, with
a small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from 580 to 480 km/s and the Bz component of IMF fluctuated
between +/-4 nT through the UT day today. A further weakening
in the solar wind stream is expected during the next 2 days.
Region 1532 (S16) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 21 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 11 33323222
Learmonth 10 23333221
Norfolk Island 9 23323121
Camden 10 23333122
Canberra 9 22333122
Hobart 10 23333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 23245221
Casey 30 44323272
Mawson 28 55444243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 75 (Active)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2223 4313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 5 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on 21 August. A decline to mostly quiet activity levels is expected
on 22 and 23 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed
today. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 21 August. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 22 and 23 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs may be possible on 21 August.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 22 and 23 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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