[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 12 issued 2354 UT on 20 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 21 09:54:27 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very Low to low    Very Low to low    Very Low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Today's largest event was a B8 flare at 2315UT. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days, with 
a small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decline from 580 to 480 km/s and the Bz component of IMF fluctuated 
between +/-4 nT through the UT day today. A further weakening 
in the solar wind stream is expected during the next 2 days. 
Region 1532 (S16) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 21 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23333222
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville          11   33323222
      Learmonth           10   23333221
      Norfolk Island       9   23323121
      Camden              10   23333122
      Canberra             9   22333122
      Hobart              10   23333221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    15   23245221
      Casey               30   44323272
      Mawson              28   55444243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            75   (Active)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2223 4313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug     5    Quiet
23 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on 21 August. A decline to mostly quiet activity levels is expected 
on 22 and 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed 
today. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 21 August. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected on 22 and 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs may be possible on 21 August. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 22 and 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   200000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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