[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 19 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 20 09:33:00 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 18/2323UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active 
region 1548 which on 18-Aug produced four M-class flares, has 
reduced in activity. On 19-Aug, it emitted C2 flares early in 
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be low over the next 
3 days, with a small chance of M-class flares. A shock in the 
solar wind at ~08UT coincided with the onset of a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream and a 5-hour IMF Bz southward excursion 
to a as far as -12nT. The solar wind speed has since increased 
to ~600km/s. Bz has varied between +/-8nT since 18UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233212
      Darwin               9   23233212
      Townsville          12   23333223
      Learmonth           10   33233212
      Norfolk Island       8   22233212
      Camden              10   22243212
      Canberra             9   12243212
      Hobart               9   12243112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    25   02166412
      Casey               11   33333212
      Mawson              10   22234212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   1322 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with an active period after 09UT following 
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Activity is expected 
to be quiet to unsettled for the next 2 days, returning to quiet 
levels on 22-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August 
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours, 
nighttime MUFs were depressed in the northern Australian region 
as were daytime MUFs in the south. Near monthly predicted MUFs 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    33900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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