[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 18 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 19 09:32:17 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.5    0102UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.9    0323UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.0    1607UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with 
the most active region being 1548 (N19E80). The largest events 
from this region were an M5.5 at 18/0102, followed by an M1.8 
at 18/0323 and an M2.0 at 18/1606. Tenflares accompanied the 
first two of these. The same region also produced several C-class 
events. An M1.3 event, peaking at 18/2322, was still in progress 
as this report was being prepared. Of several CMEs observed, 
none appears to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to 
be low to moderate over the next 3 days, with a small chance 
of X-class events. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase 
from ~350km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral 
until ~13UT and since then has varied between -8nT and +12nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12232132
      Darwin               9   22232232
      Townsville          10   22332232
      Learmonth           10   22232242
      Norfolk Island      10   32232133
      Camden               7   02232132
      Canberra             7   02232132
      Hobart               9   02232142    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    16   02163132
      Casey               10   23232232
      Mawson              20   44422153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   4332 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours was mostly 
quiet to unsettled, with a brief active period after 18UT. Active 
to storm level periods were observed in the Antarctic. Mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days, 
with active periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: A shortwave fadeout was observed early on 18-Aug as 
a result of an M5 X-ray flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August 
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours, 
nighttime MUFs were depressed over the Australian region. Similar 
conditions are expected for 19-Aug, with a return to near monthly 
predicted MUFs during 20-21 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    40600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list