[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 12 issued 2332 UT on 18 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 19 09:32:17 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.5 0102UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.9 0323UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 1607UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with
the most active region being 1548 (N19E80). The largest events
from this region were an M5.5 at 18/0102, followed by an M1.8
at 18/0323 and an M2.0 at 18/1606. Tenflares accompanied the
first two of these. The same region also produced several C-class
events. An M1.3 event, peaking at 18/2322, was still in progress
as this report was being prepared. Of several CMEs observed,
none appears to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to
be low to moderate over the next 3 days, with a small chance
of X-class events. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from ~350km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral
until ~13UT and since then has varied between -8nT and +12nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 12232132
Darwin 9 22232232
Townsville 10 22332232
Learmonth 10 22232242
Norfolk Island 10 32232133
Camden 7 02232132
Canberra 7 02232132
Hobart 9 02232142
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 16 02163132
Casey 10 23232232
Mawson 20 44422153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4332 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours was mostly
quiet to unsettled, with a brief active period after 18UT. Active
to storm level periods were observed in the Antarctic. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days,
with active periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: A shortwave fadeout was observed early on 18-Aug as
a result of an M5 X-ray flare.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours,
nighttime MUFs were depressed over the Australian region. Similar
conditions are expected for 19-Aug, with a return to near monthly
predicted MUFs during 20-21 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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