[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 12 issued 2334 UT on 17 Aug 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:34:55 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    1319UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1720UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with several impulsive flares from an unnumbered region on the 
northeast limb, including M1 and M2 events. A CME from the same 
region is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is 
expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed declined steadily from ~450km/s to ~350km/s. The IMF 
Bz maintained a southward bias for most of the UT day, varying 
to -4nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               4   22220111
      Townsville           9   33221223
      Learmonth            5   2222112-
      Norfolk Island       5   2222111-
      Camden               5   22231011
      Canberra             4   22230000
      Hobart               6   22331101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
      Casey                6   22221113
      Mawson              26   64321254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3221 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with some active and storm level periods in 
Antarctica. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with active 
periods at high latitudes, are expected for the next 3 days due 
to CME and coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August 
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours, 
MUFs were near monthly predicted values over central and southern 
Australia, with depressions observed in northern Australia and 
Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    79300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list